Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 26.460076 31.568688 37.172912 43.747561 51.218525 59.413108 69.049180
2025-06-15 19.413244 26.264469 34.516851 45.057274 58.020622 73.297337 92.503757
2025-06-22 14.497558 21.754329 31.177394 44.030338 60.797236 81.604757 109.017832
2025-06-29 12.000235 19.638588 30.187948 45.348730 66.047881 92.756600 129.180918
2025-07-06 9.069445 16.267185 26.864020 42.915974 65.835338 96.539724 139.803313
2025-07-13 7.821121 15.124273 26.444426 44.315658 70.725725 107.122535 159.666878
2025-07-20 6.759533 14.056744 25.934836 45.421395 75.137116 117.145422 179.112238
2025-07-27 5.970371 13.290062 25.754367 46.924771 80.121437 128.109558 200.232780
2025-08-03 5.243315 12.489605 25.386518 48.035094 84.500270 138.325143 220.633668
2025-08-10 4.368709 11.230108 24.054038 47.404919 86.076959 144.430839 235.295091
2025-08-17 3.794875 10.455928 23.462793 47.912421 89.405316 153.206883 254.090105
2025-08-24 3.216567 9.546892 22.492128 47.640640 91.396833 159.970957 270.079158
2025-08-31 2.525781 8.264505 20.717377 45.932736 91.180171 163.760732 282.491593
2025-09-07 2.224350 7.855149 20.642361 47.352659 96.388381 176.394215 309.047763
2025-09-14 1.776601 6.931376 19.338923 46.286796 97.172309 181.938749 324.800298
2025-09-21 1.570094 6.614283 19.300233 47.658791 102.319231 194.748723 352.357486
2025-09-28 1.170947 5.574413 17.431413 45.127109 100.180568 195.368350 360.499334
2025-10-05 1.042948 5.362485 17.492016 46.583850 105.480167 208.651665 389.438681
2025-10-12 0.917188 5.113534 17.418407 47.734401 110.247251 221.189744 417.538262
2025-10-19 0.823207 4.948738 17.533718 49.298348 115.878847 235.408707 448.814906
2025-10-26 0.725608 4.731325 17.472732 50.453151 120.759929 248.478845 478.551371
2025-11-02 0.586563 4.271056 16.659405 49.797757 121.996966 255.149791 497.751155
2025-11-09 0.501269 4.010704 16.368318 50.325574 125.623369 266.183082 524.609768